DRAM Prices Surge in Q3, Anticipated 13-18% Increase in Q4

The DRAM industry experienced a significant leap in the third quarter of 2023, with total revenues reaching an impressive $13.48 billion, marking an 18% quarter-on-quarter growth, according to TrendForce.

Among the three major manufacturers, Samsung witnessed a revenue increase of approximately 15.9% to $5.25 billion. This growth can be attributed to stable demand for high-capacity products and the success of its 1alpha nm DDR5.

SK hynix, on the other hand, experienced the most notable growth among manufacturers, with a 34.4% increase, reaching about $4.626 billion. This significant growth has narrowed the market share gap with Samsung to less than 5%.

Micron also saw a rise in revenue, approximately 4.2%, amounting to $3.075 billion.

In response to high inventory levels of DDR4 products, Samsung expanded its production cuts by the end of the third quarter. This cutback is expected to intensify to 30% in the fourth quarter, resulting in reduced overall wafer inputs. However, Samsung plans to increase wafer inputs starting from the second quarter of 2024, anticipating a demand recovery in the second half of that year.

SK hynix, benefiting from the growth in HBM and DDR5 shipments, expects a slight uptick in capacity and wafer inputs by the end of the year. Furthermore, the company foresees a steady quarterly rise in line with the growing market penetration of DDR5 in the upcoming year.

Micron, having already reduced its production earlier, currently maintains relatively healthy inventory levels. The company has begun increasing its wafer inputs in the fourth quarter of 2023, with a focus on the 1beta nm advanced process. It is estimated that the wafer input volume for 2024 will continue to rise modestly, with a key emphasis on transitioning to more advanced manufacturing processes.