China’s Lagging Progress: A Decade Behind and No Signs of Catching Up

According to Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, China is facing a significant technological gap in semiconductor manufacturing. Gelsinger stated during the WEF Davos meeting that China is approximately ten years behind the leading edge and is likely to remain in that position. He attributed this gap to the export policies implemented by various countries, such as the Netherlands, the United States, and Japan, which have set a floor in the 10 to 7nm range.

Gelsinger further explained, "We are racing to go below 2nm and then 1.5nm, and you know we see no end to that in sight." This relentless pursuit of smaller nanometer sizes in semiconductor manufacturing poses a challenge for China. The country struggles to source all the necessary elements from the highly complex international supply chain required to produce cutting-edge integrated circuits (ICs).

"It is not like China is not going to keep innovating, but this is a highly interconnected industry," Gelsinger added. He emphasized the importance of various components from different countries, such as the mirrors of Zeiss, the equipment assembly of ASML, the chemicals and resist in Japan, and the mask making of Intel. The combination of these factors contributes to the 10-year gap that China currently faces in semiconductor manufacturing.

Despite the challenges, China remains committed to innovation and technological advancement. However, the export policies implemented by other countries have created a sustainable gap that will take time to bridge. Gelsinger's remarks shed light on the intricate nature of the semiconductor industry and the reliance on a global supply chain.

As the race to smaller nanometer sizes continues, it will be interesting to see how China navigates this technological gap. The country may need to explore alternative strategies to enhance its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers. Only time will tell if China can overcome this hurdle and catch up with the leading-edge semiconductor technologies.