Extended Lifespan: Lithium Batteries Surpass Expectations in Various Applications

A recent study has revealed a surprising trend in the lifespan of lithium batteries, showing that they are lasting significantly longer than previously anticipated.

According to the study, while close to 80% of lithium-ion batteries placed on the market in 2010 had reached the end of their life cycle by 2020, only 35.4% of batteries introduced in 2020 are expected to reach the end of their lifespan after a decade.

One of the key factors contributing to this extended longevity is the improved design of battery packs, which are now better equipped to maintain the health of the battery over a longer period of time. Additionally, these batteries are being utilized in applications where they can last much longer than in previous years.

Another significant reason for the prolonged lifespan of lithium batteries is the increasing use of these batteries in products that have longer operational lifespans. While most people do not use a mobile phone for more than 10 years, the average age of cars in the EU is over 12 years, with many vehicles being driven for more than two decades.

The data, sourced from the latest update on CES Online tracking the estimated lifecycle of batteries in various applications, indicates a promising future for lithium batteries. The study predicts that by 2040, less than 21% of batteries introduced to the market a decade earlier will have reached the end of their life cycle.

Between 2010 and 2020, there were notable advancements in the longevity and energy density of lithium-ion batteries, particularly in terms of energy density and specific energy. While density itself may not directly impact a battery's cycle life, it does elevate the threshold at which degradation begins, allowing for prolonged product usage.

However, the primary reason behind the increased longevity of lithium batteries lies in the shift in applications utilizing these batteries. In 2010, over 98% of batteries were used in portable devices with higher turnover rates, such as mobile phones and laptops. In contrast, in 2020, portable batteries accounted for less than 20%, with a significant increase in the use of lithium batteries in light and heavy electric vehicles (EVs).

Furthermore, there is a behavioral and economic incentive driving the extended use of products powered by lithium batteries. While a 13-year-old Nissan Leaf or Mitsubishi i-Miev priced at $2500 may not seem expensive for a car, it represents a substantial investment for many individuals. As long as these vehicles meet basic requirements and pass inspections, they continue to remain in use.

Similarly, the market dynamics for mobile phones differ, with older devices like the iPhone 6 facing a smaller resale market, leading to a higher proportion of these devices ending up in e-waste streams compared to cars.

Circular Energy Storage Research and Consulting has been gathering lifecycle data for over seven years, encompassing factors such as the scrap rate of specific models, EV annual mileage, domestic and international EV trade, and sales of used EVs in developing markets. This data aids in forecasting when batteries will be available for reuse or recycling, as well as estimating the size of these markets.

These insights are valuable not only for car and battery manufacturers but also for governments seeking to understand the remaining battery stock in the market and the actual size of EV fleets.