Memory Market Soars with 75% Price Increase in 2024

The semiconductor market is experiencing a significant rebound in values following a downturn in 2023. This resurgence is being primarily fueled by a surge in bit demand and escalating average selling prices, marking the end of an oversupply period. Companies are witnessing a spike in the purchase of high-value products like high-bandwidth memory (HBM) format DRAMs, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics.

Projections for the DRAM market in 2025 are optimistic, with an expected increase of 51 percent, while NAND flash is anticipated to grow by 29 percent. This growth trajectory is set to reignite capital expenditure drives, providing a much-needed boost for equipment and materials suppliers. However, it may also exert pressure on purchasers as prices are likely to rise in response to the heightened demand.

According to data from TrendForce, DRAM average selling prices (ASPs) are forecasted to rise by 53 percent in 2024 and a further 35 percent in 2025. The revenue generated from DRAM is projected to reach US$90.7 billion in 2024 and escalate to US$136.5 billion in 2025. Notably, HBM is expected to play a significant role, contributing 5 percent of DRAM bit shipments and 20 percent of revenue in 2024.

TrendForce's analysis indicates that DDR5 is poised to capture 40 percent of server DRAM bit shipments in 2024, with an anticipated increase to 60-65 percent by 2025. In the mobile sector, LPDDR5/5X is projected to account for 50 percent and 60 percent of mobile DRAM bit shipments in 2024 and 2025, respectively, showcasing the evolving landscape of memory technologies.

Looking at the NAND flash market, revenues are expected to reach US$67.4 billion in 2024 and further climb to US$87 billion in 2025. TrendForce predicts that quad-level-cell (QLC) technology will contribute 20 percent of NAND flash bit shipments in 2024, with a growing share anticipated for 2025. The adoption of QLC in smartphone applications is also on the rise, with expectations of penetration into the UFS market by Chinese smartphone manufacturers and potential future integration by Apple.